A Tragedy of Errors

Everyone has been been trying their hardest to find the appropriate analogy for this election season.  After a lot of thought, I think I've found it: it's the South Park episode "The Losing Edge."  The only difference is that instead of trying to lose on purpose like the boys did, both the candidates and their respective parties have done everything they possibly can to lose this election and it is only by sheer idiot luck that one side hasn't stumbled it's way into a competent, winning strategy.

Take the Democrats for example.  Winning a third consecutive presidential election for any party is already an incredibly difficult thing to do, so, naturally, you would nominate someone that almost the entire country either hates or is deeply ambivalent towards.  Add to that, the young and independent voters that were so crucial to securing Obama his two terms in office completely rejected her in the primaries and are still, to a large part, not at all promised to vote for her come Election Day.  Against literally any other Republican candidate, we'd be seeing the absolute collapse of the Clinton campaign in the wake of her leaked audio tapes dismissing the political beliefs of an entire generation and Wikileaks releasing sections of her Wall Street speeches which show she's exactly the big money shill that people think she is.  It'd be poetic, in its own way, watching a woman who has spent the last couple decades scheming and maneuvering her way into higher and higher positions of power only to spectacularly fail on her biggest stage precisely because of all that wheeling and dealing would be exactly what she deserves in a just world.  Luckily for her, though, we live in this one, and in this world, people think Donald Trump is qualified to run for President.

Seriously, Hillary Clinton should be thanking whatever god she believes in and however many she can name every single day that she's running against Donald Trump.  That doofus is the single biggest reason she has any hope of winning and there shouldn't be a moment that goes by where she isn't celebrating that fact.  There's been a conspiracy theory for a while now that Trump is a secret Clinton plant to make the Republican Party nominate someone so repulsive that it would guarantee her victory.  I've never bought in to this theory because it's creation seems more of a way to avoid dealing with the implications of what it means for our politics when one of the two major parties willingly and enthusiastically embraces a borderline fascist.  But after the last week or so, I can understand why people are willing to believe it.  Nobody is really talking about either of the Clinton leaks, after all, because almost as soon as the news broke on those, Trump provided scandals of his own to steer media attention back to himself.  The tax return story broke two days after the Clinton audio leaks, and the new "Grab them by the pussy" tape came the day before Clinton's speech transcripts.  So while Clinton's controversies make her implode, Trump's make him a walking dumpster fire that can't be ignored.

But even with all that, both candidates still have paths to victory that aren't actually all that difficult to do.  For Hillary, she could stop browbeating the millennials and independents who are still hesitant to get behind her and actually give them a reason to vote for.  For example, if she gave a speech like this:

"I understand why all of you felt like voting for Bernie Sanders in the primary and why you still don't feel like I represent you now; I've done and said some things in the past that are in direct opposition to what you want the country to become.  I believe that universal health care and paid college tuition are noble goals, but in this time, and in these politics, we simply don't have ability to pass legislation to accomplish those goals.  however, if you vote for me, I promise to dedicate myself to bringing those goals closer to fruition.  I won't promise you to fix this in my first 100 days, because it'll take a lot longer than that.  But, if you stand with me here and in November, I'll stand with you for the long haul so that we can reform this country into a nation that reflects and inspires the exuberance and hope of its youth"

That would go a long way to fixing her problem.   There would still be skeptics, of course, but at its basest form politics is about recognizing what people want and promising them you'll work to get it.  But Hillary will never give anything resembling a speech like that because it would require for her to admit that she's made mistakes and that she isn't already inherently worth voting for and would actually have to earn people's trust.

Trump, still, has a way to win too, but like Hillary, he won't actually do it.  Now, there are people asking if his latest comment will be what finally sinks his campaign.  It won't, not really, and here's why: because his base doesn't give a shit.  If Trump was going to lose out or be disqualified because of the reprehensible shit that comes out of his mouth that would've happened the day he announced his run for President and said Mexico was shipping rapists, murderers, and, maybe, some good people into the United States.  What this latest thing will do is basically sever white, educated women from voting for him.  That's not really a terrible loss, since they aren't and never have been a significant part of his base and he's been steadily losing them the entire campaign anyway. The audio isn't going to alter his demographics in any significant way, or convince anyone who has already supported him through everything else to jump ship now.

Trump's way to victory isn't based on how he can get more people to vote for him, rather, it's how he can get people to not vote for Hillary.  Trump has literally no chance to improve his chances among blacks, Hispanics, millennials, or independent voters.  Whatever poll numbers he's gotten in those groups is all he's going to get, there is no way for him to move up.  But, he can start splitting the vote, start saying to independents and young voters that hey, they don't have to vote for him, but they also don't have to be bound or guilt tripped into voting for Crooked Hillary, either.  Hillary as way more to lose in those demographics than he does, and if actively undermines her outreach efforts to those groups by talking up the third party options than he should be able to draw enough of them away to Gary Johnson or Jill Stein that Hillary's base becomes too diluted for her to win.  Luckily, Trump is too egotistical to do this; I honestly think he is completely incapable of endorsing anyone that isn't him.

At this point, the only hope I have is that reality t.v. producers will go on one of the morning news shows and reveal how this entire thing has basically been the most elaborate and detailed prank pulled on the American public.  Like, they wanted to make a show where two narcissistic and completely opportunistic people ran for President.  How would the country feel, watching those two duke it out like competing Bridezillas for a year.  Hell, even the candidates themselves could show up, sitting across from each other laughing at all the ridiculous things that've happened and how they're easily the worst people to ever run for the job.  Sure, they would say, listening to Clinton go out and pretend to actually give a shit about people demonstrated her range, and watching Donald say Megyn Kelly asked tough questions because she was bleeding out her hoo-ha is a great moment in edgy comedy.  But really, Hillary would say, how terrible would things have to be if the two of us were seriously the only options for President?  That'd be awful, right?  And everybody would laugh, because it'd be true, and no matter how scary or uncertain the world seems right now, at least we would be spared waking up on November 9th to a Clinton or Trump Presidency. That'd be a world worth having hope for.